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Question 269:

A classical experiment in extrasensory perception (ESP) consists of asking a subject to tell, without looking, the suit of each card in a deck of Zener cards. There are five suits in the deck so the probability of a chance match between the guess and the card is 1/5 or .20. If only chance is operating, you would expect a subject to get 20 matches in 100 guesses (.20 X 100 =20). The standard deviation for this mean of 20 is 4.

What is the probability of a subject making 23 or more matches in 100 guesses?

What is the probability of 27 or more matches in 100 guesses?

Suppose a friend of a friend claimed to have ESP and agreed to sit just on time and guess at 100 cards. Suppose she made 36 matches. Calculate the probability of this many, or more, matches if only chance is at work, and carefully write a conclusion.

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