I believe this question may require a few back n forth emails from us as I'm not sure if I will cover everything that is required for you to answer this question in this email. I will do my very best!
I have a bank of 200 000 and I place bets at 5 different sportsbooks with the following monthly strategy:
I will bet 4000 at odds of 1.70 at the 1st sportsbook. If i win I will take my 2800 profit from that sportsbook and won't bet there again until the following month. If I lose I will bet again until 1 of my 2 targets are reached. either 2800 profit or 12000 loss. I have a 60% chance of winning every bet I make. Also, this strategy remains constant throughout the entire time. That is, I will repeat this process at all 5 sportsbooks.
If I hit my 12000 loss at a sportsbook, at the end of the month I then receive 25% of this loss back. that is, i receive 3000 back.
so these are the 2 extremes:
I could reach my target of 2800 at each of the 5 bookies, making my total profit for the month 14000, or hit my target of -12000 for a total loss of 60000 x 25% kickback, making the total loss for the month only 45000.
What are my chances of losing my entire bank by betting this strategy?
what are my chances of losing half my bank?
What would the answer to the above questions be if instead of 4000 per bet, I bet 2000? 6000? 8000?