Question 737:

Asked on May 31, 2009

Tags: Time-Series

(a) Choose one beverage category and plot the data (MILK CATAGORY CHOSEN). (b) Describe the trend (if any) and discuss
possible causes. (c) Would a fitted trend be helpful? Explain. (d) Fit several trend models. Which
is best, and why? If none is satisfactory, explain. (e) Make a forecast for 2005, using a trend model
of your choice or a judgment forecast. Discuss. Note: Time increments are 5 years, so use t = 6
for your 2005 forecast.

U.S. Per Capita Annual Consumption of Selected Beverages (gallons)

Beverage 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Milk 27.6 26.7 25.7 23.9 22.5
Whole 17.0 14.3 10.5 8.6 8.1
Reduced-fat 10.5 12.3 15.2 15.3 14.4